[War] Special Report: Lines in the Sand

[Michael Downey]

(As of 28 May 2014)

As both China and the largely American-led AZFOR coalition muster
their forces Iran finds itself in a very precarious position. Many
reformist officials in the civil government foresee a terrible defeat
in Iran if both of the world's superpowers attack the Middle East
country and have called for a negotiated peace and withdrawal of
Iranian forces from Azerbaijan.

Unfortunately for these voices of reason (and the world in general)
the religious theocracy that hold the true reigns of power has shown
little intent of pulling back. In an inflammatory speech made before
large crowd in Tehran, the Ayatollah decreed that God favored Iran
above all nations on Earth and that the 'divine will and fury of
heaven' would ensure an absolute Iranian victory in the 'coming
crusade against the two Great Satans,' no doubt China and the United
States.  To emphasize the point, Iranian units have begun to dig in
and fortify their positions in Southern Azerbaijan while home guard
units have begun massing near the Pakistani border.

Behind closed doors the Iranians have responded somewhat to China's
overtures and offers. Tehran's demands are that Azerbaijan make Iran
the exclusive customer of the oil field and at a price per barrel far
below the global average. Furthermore Iran wants, in addition to
access to advanced defence systems offered by China, a sale contract
for the J-10 'Chengdu' fighter aircraft made by the PLAAF.

Pakistan has relented and agreed to allow the PLA to begin moving
forces into the country and make use of Pakistani military bases in
the event of war with Iran. While the White House has not yet had an
opportunity to comment, the US Congress is furious at this 'betrayal'
with more conservative Congressmen calling for Pakistan's Major
Non-Nato Ally status to be revoked.

The AZFOR coalition is shaping up effectively but slowly. Britain has
offered to dispatch almost eight thousand troops with another five
thousand offered from Spain, Italy and Poland and . The French
parliament has conditionally approved the possibility of French forces
being sent to fight with AZFOR as well, but the lack of promised
French actions at the UN has caused upset grumbles from the US State
Department.

Meanwhile in Japan, the Diet is drawn over Sato's decision to send an
additional two thousand troops to Georgia, ostensibly under the
mandate of peacekeepers in the pre-existing operation. While not
technically marked for combat with either AZFOR or the Russians, the
Diet is concerned that Georgia will certainly act as the primary
staging ground for an AZFOR invasion of Iran and JGSDF troops will be
caught up in the fighting. For now the Diet has given a hesitant nod
to the increased deployments.

A short but bloody 'mop-up operation' conducted by the 106th Guard
Division of the Russian VDV has quashed the rebel outbreak around
Grozny, leaving Russia's flank functionally secure. The Russian
Defence Ministry has been quite irritated at being left out of the
planning of a major NATO offensive into what Moscow considers its back
yard and has been calling for a Russian liaison to be added to the
AZFOR command staff. Moscow is angrier still at China for what it
perceived as 'Faustian' negotiations with Iran.

On that note, UN Secretary General Tony Blair has been sharply
critical of the total lack of coordination between AZFOR, Russia and
China. He has described the situation as totally chaotic, especially
with recent military tensions between the United States and China.

"If the First Gulf War had been fought like this then we would have
never won," said Blair during a Security Council meeting. "Two sides
pursuing what is in effect two different wars is not constructive in
this situation. China, Russia and the United States must act together
or else this crisis might become worse than we thought."

He further added that the conflicting plans and responses of the
international community might add to Iran's resolve to fight it out.

Regardless, it seems all three sides are well on their way to
finalizing their preparations. Within the next few days all involved
parties will be in a position to attack at their leisure.