[War] Ethiopia 2013

[Dylan de Valk]

*Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
*
Head of State: President Girma Wolde-Giorgis
Head of Government: Dirma Zembagis

Population: 88 million

GDP [PPP] = $71.3 billion
per capita = $800

Unemployment Rate: 11%

Economic Growth: 8%

--------------------------------------------------------

*Political Landscape:*  In late 2012, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi retired on
a high note after a long and successful career in Ethiopian politics.  Since
the Prime Minister has the real power in Ethiopia, this position opening up
is significant, as it allowed Dirma Zembagis to fill in the position and
take over.  As interim leader, Dirma's position is not yet solidified, but
he is exercising increased control over the House of People's
Representatives [lower chamber] and the House of Federation [upper
chamber].  With President Girma Wolde-Giorgis' term coming to an end in the
next year, Dirma has another chance to fill the position with a political
ally, as long as the HoPR votes in favour of his choice that is.

As for Dirma himself, he is a well known public figure in Ethiopia and has
been for the last few years since he started campaigning with his party, the
Ethiopian National Front.  Dirma created the party himself, and it has
gained momentum rapidly since its inception in late 2009.  They did well,
carrying 102 seats in the HoPR in the 2010 elections, and Dirma has
organized a coalition government to gain power with Zenawi gone.

The Ethiopian National Front [from now on ENF] has a broad agenda and a wide
appeal among many people in country for its generally progressive, yet
patriotic ideas:

1. Equality amongst the many diverse ethnic groups of Ethiopia.
2. Protection for critical sectors of the economy
3. Supports bringing back the Emperor and the Imperial family to act in a
constitutional manner, similar to the system in many European nations and
Japan.
4. Reform and investment in agriculture, critical to so many Ethiopians.
5. Investment and construction of infrastructure to aid economic
development.
6. An independent and neutral course in international diplomacy.  Dirma is a
well known nationalist and disagrees with common markets and free trade,
along with other attempts to integrate Africa.
7. Promotes traditional values
8. Promotes extending Ethiopia's influence amongst its neighbours in the
region.
9. Wants Eritrea integrated back into Ethiopia, by what means doesn't
matter.

*Economics:*  By 2013, after a short slowing in growth, Ethiopia's economy
is back on track and is one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
Although a drought struck in 2008, and hurt many people, the monsoon rains
have returned with regularity and have once again brought prosperity to many
farmers.
Nonetheless, Ethiopia remains an extremely poor nation, with many varying
economic problems.  A lack of electricity, fossil fuels, infrastructure, and
foreign exchange reserves, little government spending on social programs
like education and health care, no coastal access, population overcrowding,
and a heavy dependence on agriculture, are some of the problems facing the
country.  The agricultural sector remains dependent on coffee exports to
keep many farmers afloat, and poor water usage, lack of irrigation, outdated
farming techniques, and overuse of pesticides lead to desertification.
Ethiopia is a very mountainous country, and much of country is within the
East Africa Rift Valley, a major earthquake zone.  Although there has not
been a major earthquake in recent history, there is bound to be one again,
and when one strikes, many impoverished people will suffer.  Because the
population is growing so rapidly, the economy must generate hundreds of
thousands of new jobs every year just to keep the per capita income level.
Until population growth declines, per capita income will grow slowly.

All that being said, the future is bright.  Industry and services continue
to grow apace, and migration to the cities runs at about 4% annually.  Addis
Ababa is undoubtedly the economic hub of the country, with a rapidly growing
population of about 3.5 million people.  The soils of the nation remain very
fertile due to the very thing that also threatens the people, volcanism and
tectonic forces.  With coaxing and time, Ethiopia could become a breadbasket
region for export and be able feed itself.

*Social Issues:*  Ethiopia has a fast-growing population.  Population growth
averages out at approximately 2.4% annually.  This leads to enormous strain
on the existing infrastructure in place and leads to many issues that come
with an exploding population.  Ethiopia's population has grown from 33.5
million in 1983 to 75.1 million in 2006!  And since 2006, a further 13
million people have been added to that sum.  Needless to say, disease and
health care are major issues.  While the economy grows rapidly, hand in hand
with population growth, the per capita income of the average Ethiopian has
been stationary at about $800 per capita.  More people than ever before are
mired in poverty, although percentage-wise this is slowly improving.  At a
staggering 81% living below the poverty line, some 70 million people are
considered poor in the country.  AIDS runs rampant with an ever increasing
death toll and infection count, and the death rate is at 11/1000.  A lack of
health care funding and medicine severely limit what aid agencies and the
government can do for the people.

Meanwhile, the percentage of the population with an education remains low,
despite attempts over the years.  All is not dark on the social front
though.  Despite the many challenges Ethiopia faces, the AIDS infection rate
is lower than to the south.  As government revenues increase, more is spent
on education and health care.  The growth rate of population is also slowly
declining, as is the death rate.  The life expectancy is rising, albeit
slowly, and currently stands at a median rate of 56 years.  The situation,
while dire. is improving and will continue to do so.

*Defense:*  The Ethiopian military is one of the largest in Africa, with
more than 200,000 active service personnel.  The Ethiopian National Defense
Force [ENDF] is currently transitioning from a rebel force to a professional
contract military.  The military is overseen by the Ministry of Defence,
which also regulates the domestic arms industry.
The domestic arms industry is a polyglot of businesses that create new parts
and somehow generally keep the ancient weaponry of the military working.
The debt of the federal government, all $3.5 billion of it, was incurred by
arms purchases from the USSR in the late 1970's and early '80's by the Derg
regime.  This debt remains unserviced.
Ethiopian forces have participated in many regional conflicts, including
Somalia, Darfur, and Eritrea.  Ethiopia will remain a major player in the
region, and commands respect among its neighbours because of its
comparatively large military.
*
Foreign Relations:*  Ethiopia maintains embassies in all major nations of
the world.  Relations with the US and co. have improved markedly since the
collapse of the Derg and institution of democracy in the 1990's.  Relations
with China are also warm, as Chinese investment in Ethiopia continues, as in
much of east Africa.

*Timeline:*

November 2009:  ENF founded by Dirma.
April 2010: Monsoon rains return in June after scattered showers begin in
February.  Farmers rejoice.
September 2010:  Farmers reap a record crop.  Food aid is temporarily
reduced and the government stores away as much as it can.
January 2011:  Ethiopia rejects the new boundary recommended by the
Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission.  Tensions increase between the two
states.  Ethiopian forces still remain as occupiers of much of Eritrea.
October 2011: A friendly fire incident by Eritrean forces on their own led
to a confused gun fight on the border and 23 soldiers on both sides died.
Although the situation was defused, diplomatic relations are near an
all-time low.
June 2012: A bomber detonates himself in the city of Dire Dawa in the
eartern portion of the country, killing 2 people and wounding 19.  Ethiopian
security forces link him to an Eritrean rebel cell and the Foreign Affairs
Ministry denounces Eritrea as a haven of terrorism.
August 2012: A small natural gas field is discovered in the eastern desert
region of the country.
November 2012:  Prime Minister Meles Zenawi retires as announced a year
earlier.  Dirma Zembagis becomes interim Prime Minister until the next
elections.
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