[War] Japan 2013

[Michael Downey]

Country long-name (English): Japan
Head of State: Emperor: Emperor Akihito
Head of Government: Prime Minister Shirow Ahkahita
Population:  126,254,650
GDP (PPP):  $4.401 trillion dollars (US)
GDP (PPP) per capita: $34,848 (US)
Unemployment:  4.4%
Economic Growth:  2% (as of 2013)

Political Landscape
The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a harsh setback in the Lower
House elections in September of 2009, losing fifty-five seats to the
Democratic Party of Japan. Though retaining control of the country,
the LDP chose to oust Taro Aso and replace him newcomer Ton Koujino.
The Koujino administration was credited with continuing reform of the
country’s financial sector and smoothing over the final privatization
of Japan Post the officially occurred in 2007, while trying to improve
the national economic performance in the face of a global recession.

Unfortunately a constituency spending scandal in 2010 tarnished the
LDP even further. While Koujino himself continued to enjoy popularity
among the population, the Kouchi Kai bloc of the LDP from which he
drew most of his support was hurt badly by the resulting internal
fallout. The right wing Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyukai bloc, with the backing
of hardliners and far-right nationalists, managed to oust Koujino in
June of 2011 and replace him with conservative Assemblyman Ichiro
Shima. However the ongoing recession continued to dog the LDP in the
polls and Prime Minister Shima’s strong nationalist rhetoric did not
provide the poll boost the LDP had hoped for.

Around the same time the DPJ also elected a new leader. Formerly a
powerful insurance mogul, Shirow Ahkahita had turned to politics by
becoming mayor of Fukuoka in 2002 before turning to the national stage
by unseating an LDP assemblyman in the 2009 Lower House elections.
Touting his strong business credentials and playing on his successful
mayoral career, Ahkahita was made Party President on the second
ballot.

By November of 2012, the LDP was in dire straits. Many moderates
within the party had become alienated by Shima’s iron-fisted
leadership style and refusal to address one of the country’s main
economic hurdle, the shrinking population. The defection of over
twenty LDP assemblymen to the DPJ made the LDP’s popularity dip by a
wide margin, allowing the DPJ and Social Democrats to force a
no-confidence vote and drag the country into an election that occurred
in January of 2013. In one of Japan’s most costly and acrimonious
election campaigns to date, the DPJ managed to finally wrestle control
of the Diet from the LDP after years of hard struggle, winning 245
seats.

The morning after the election, the Secretary-General of the DPJ and
presumptive Chief Cabinet Secretary Takashi Omaguchi was assassinated
outside of his home by an ethnic Korean. A powerful member of the DPJ
leadership and considered to be the key ally of Prime Minister-elect
Ahkahita, his death cast an earl shadow on the incoming
administration.

Economics
Japan was spared the early ravages of the subprime mortgage crisis and
the credit crunch that followed. However, a downturn in global markets
that followed resulted in decreasing demand for Japanese exports, as
well as a decrease in American, Chinese and European investment
capital. The Japanese economy shrunk from 2009 to 2011 but rebounded
with growth at the close of the 2011 trading year, though at a slow
pace.

Two lingering problems cloud Japan’s economic future. The first is the
country’s tremendous debt, almost 170% of the GDP. Significant
belt-tightening and rigid fiscal discipline by the Koujino government
has kept the national debt from climbing any higher but it still
remains at the same level as it did in 2009.

The second problem is the continued gentrification and numerical
decline of Japan’s population. Though Japan has the lowest mortality
rate and longest life expectancy on Earth, the actual population of
the country has dropped by close to a million people over the past
four years. This is due to a low birth rate, with fewer families
having many (or any) children. As the population drops, the workforce
shrinks due to death and age, productivity drops as well. At the same
time the pool of taxpayers able to provide (both in terms of service
and financing) for the elderly decreases.

Still, Japan has doggedly clung to its position as the third largest
economy in the world. The country is currently the largest exporter of
cars and automotive parts, despite increasing competition from the
United States as its auto industry slowly recovers, and is the second
largest exporter of computers and electronics. It is also in the top
tier of pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding, machine tools, precision
instruments, steel and alternative energy technologies.

Social Issues
The prevailing social issue in Japan is the question of how to deal
with the continued shrinking and aging of the country’s population.
Many, especially more liberal members of the DPJ, have pushed for
relaxation of Japan’s rigid (some would say racist) immigration laws
and allow more migrants from the rest of Asia. The LDP has opposed
such steps and suggested tax cuts for every child below the age of
eighteen for Japanese families and more government spending on
childcare, though the DPJ has criticized such measures as too
long-term to affect a problem that grows every day.

Related to this is increasing discontent among the Zainichi, the
half-million Japnese-born Koreans who lack Japanese citizenship
despite living their entire lives in the country. Growing nationalism
and a lingering desire to keep Japan a homogeneous nation has hampered
the desire of the Zainichi to become naturalized citizens. Similar
discontent has been simmering among Japan’s ethnic Chinese population.

Defense
The military policy and public perception of Japan’s military role in
the Far East has undergone serious scrutiny over the past four years,
both by the Diet, JSDF leadership and the voting populace. North
Korea’s successful test of the Taepodong-3 missile in 2010 caused a
large political stir. Combined with greater and greater military
spending by China and Russia, many within the LDP have called for a
review of Article 9. Opposed to a constitutional amendment but equally
concerned by the growing military prowess of its dangerous and
unpredictable neighbors, the DPJ has blocked a review of Article 9 but
compromised by supporting increased defence spending.

Therefore, the budget of the JSDF has slowly grown from 0.8% of the
GDP in 2009 to 1.2% in 2013. The JGSDF has pushed the Type 89 IFV into
widespread service while the JASDF has entered into talks with the
USAF to begin acquiring F-35 fighters to replace their aging fleet of
F15-J fighters. The JSDF still lags behind in amphibious ability and
is considered lacking in large-scale airlift ability.

The alliance between Japan and the USA has continued to prosper and
remains strong, with the JMSDF and US Navy conducting joint training
exercises off the coast of Okinawa in late 2012.

Timeline:
August 2009- Large scale protests take place in Tokyo and other major
Japanese cities the protests centre on the mismanagement of the
Japanese pension system and reluctance of the government to provide
real solutions to the declining population
September 2009- LDP loses fifty-five seats to the DPJ in the Lower
House elections. Taro Aso resigns as Prime Minister and is replaced by
Ton Koujino as Prime Minister and LDP leader.
February 2010- North Korea successfully fires the Taepodong-3 missile
over Japan.
June 2011- Prime Minister Koujino resigns, Ichiro Shima become Prime Minister.
August 2011- Assemblyman Shirow Ahkahita becomes DPJ President.
October 2012- Joint exercises between the US Navy and JMSDF off the
coast of Okinawa
January 2013- DPJ wins the Lower House election, winning a total of 245
seats.  Shortly after, DPJ Secretary-General Takashi Omaguchi  is
assassinated by a Zainichi Korean.