[War] Brazil 2013

[Ian Martell]

Country long-name: Federative Republic of Brazil
Head of State: President Jaoa Carlos dos Anjos Taveres
Head of Government: President Jaoa Carlos dos Anjos Taveres
Population: 208,270,804
GDP (PPP): 2.2 trillion
GDP (PPP) per capita: 10,200
Unemployment: 9%
Economic Growth: 5%

Political Landscape

 

Brazil is breathing a sigh of relief after the peaceful resignation of the former President and Vice President at the end of a struggle that looked like it would spark into civil war. The problems began in June 2012 when it was discovered government officials in the Bahia state were embezzling millions of dollars earmarked for education and health care projects. While not unusual for Brazil except for the amount of money being pocketed, it quickly became apparent that knowledge of the scheme went higher than local officials and eventually came to rest at the doors of the President and Vice President. Investigators knowing that then President da Silva was popular with the army and fearing reprisal sought the aid of then Senator Jaoa Taveres who was a vocal and popular opponent of corruption. Attempting to prevent loss of face, Taveres went to the President with the accusations and attempted to make a deal. He was rebuffed, and several days later was himself arrested on charges of corruption. The result was a political stand off between the supporters of Taveres and those against corruption and da Silva who potentially had the backing of the military. It seemed like it would come to violence until a petition was delivered by Taveres' supporters with the signatures of the leaders of the major parties calling for the President to step down. After two tense days, he summoned the party leaders to a private meeting before stepping down on October 1st along with the Vice President. 

                                                                                                            

Elections followed 90 days later and a released Taveres won handily on a platform of reform and hope. With the political situation stabilized Taveres has the remainder of President da Silva's term to make good on his promises to clean up the government and help Brazil step up from a regional power to one with truly global reach. 


Economics



Brazil was able to capitalize on its supply of oil to weather the worst of the global recession. With the addition of new fields fully explored in 2010 Brazil became South America's leading oil producer and lacking the protectionist 'gringos out' policies of its neighbors quickly became the preferred source of South American oil for western nations. Additionally Brazil's comparatively free regulations on foreign investment allowed numerous businesses forced out of neighboring countries set up their South American operations in Brazil expanding its manufacturing sector considerably. These two factors contributed considerably to Brazil being able to prevent its economy retracting during the recession and be among the first countries to bounce back at its end which in turn allowed its agricultural and financial sectors weather the storm as well.

 

Despite the general rosy financial picture, Brazil's ambitions towards becoming a major player in the financial services market have taken a serious hit due to corruption in that industry. The most famous case of this corruption is the failure of Brazilian securities authorities to catch Felipe Serrador who operated a Ponzi scheme in the fashion of Bernie Madoff for five years before he was exposed by local reporters and finally arrested by Brazilian authorities. This and the general opinion that most of the regulatory bodies are corrupt or simply inept has led many investors to be skeptical of investing in Brazil and halting expansion of any plans to build existing financial service providers. This issue is of particular import to the business community who has made it clear to President Taveres that he should make this a priority. 

 


Social Issues



Brazil's social ills are many, but none are more prevalent than poverty and crime. Despite the country's prosperity there is a wide gap between the richest and poorest Brazilians. In 2012 the richest 10% received 50% of the nation's income and the poorest 10% received only 1%. Further crime and crime particularly violent crime, is rampant with 48,245 murders in 2012 and the majority of crimes committed being unsolved. Tied to both these issues are the further issues of drugs and corruption. Many of Brazil's poorest citizens are addicted to drugs, and it is a problem that is spreading into youth of the middle class. Controlling the supply and distribution of the drugs are a number of powerful and well armed cartels who produce, import and export drugs from the country and control a number of the ghettos in some of Brazil's biggest cities. These cartels along with other organized crime groups contribute to the culture of corruption that is prevalent throughout the Brazilian government, buying local officials as well as police officers in order to protect their illegal activities. However corruption doesn't stop with criminals, legal entities also engage in bribery and it is often the only way to secure some service in the poorer parts of the country. Embezzlement is another big issue facing the government as many civil servants line their pockets with money marked for other things, which in turn degrade the services going to the public, often to the point that in the poorer areas they are virtually non-existent forcing them to turn to alternative authorities such as gangs for what they need. 

 

In addition to the numerous problems caused by crime, drugs and corruption the environment has become an increasingly important issue for Brazilians especially those in urban areas where smog has become a serious problem. While many international organizations such as Greenpeace, put pressure on the Brazilian government to protect the Amazon rainforest and stop the slash and burn tactics employed by the local cattle producers to expand grazing land. 

 

Defense

 

Brazil's armed forces are continuing their drive to upgrade in 2013 however with the focus turned on the Army instead of the Air Force and Navy as has traditionally been the case. For example some army units have antiquated equipment sometimes upwards of 40 years old while the Air Force has just received over 100 newly built JAS 39s and the Navy has just launched its first nuclear powered attack sub. During his election campaign President Taveres has promised to make modernization of the army a priority along with a commitment to build most of the new equipment domestically simultaneously rebuilding Brazil's arms industry.

 

The armed forces currently have a budget of 3% of the GDP, slightly higher than NATO standard and there is still mandatory conscription, however exemptions are fairly easy to come by. Currently the armed forces consider domestic criminal organizations, border incursion by non-government forces from Columbia and the possibility of a attempt to ferment socialist revolution from Venezuela as the largest threats to Brazil's security. The first of these threats, criminal groups, are only reluctantly considered 'the army's business' however after the August Crisis (see timeline) which ended in the army ousting a major criminal organization from the Rocinha ghetto in Rio de Janeiro it is clear that these gangs are becoming too well armed for the police alone to handle and regular urban warfare training has become a standard practice for all units of the army. As to the other threats, conflict from Columbia spilling over to Brazil, and socialist uprising spurred by Venezuela have been dealt with in the same way, both countries borders have been reinforced and a number of intelligence assets human and electronic have been deployed in order to detect and thwart either of these problems before they become a major security issue. However there are some of the old guard who feel Chavez is too much of a threat to remain in power on Brazil's border and are pushing for more direct action against the dictator. 

 

Finally Brazil has had the capacity to produce 6 nuclear bombs per year since the late 70's, however the current administration as with the ones before it remains committed to refraining from developing any such weapons and following the launch of its nuclear powered sub allowed the IAEA to inspect both the sub and their power plants to prove to their neighbors only the sub's power systems are nuclear.

 

Foreign Relations

 

Brazil's major diplomatic objectives are three fold: financial, cultural, and political integration with the Latin American community, acquire new trade agreements with the developed and developing world, gain entry to both the UN Security Council as a permanent member and becoming part of the G8. All three of these objectives have been given the support of President Taveres, and he has promised many times throughout his campaign that they will be a priority for his administration.

 

In addition Brazil has indicated it will continue to vigorously support multinational organizations like the UN, Mercosur, and the Organization of American States as opposed to seeking unilateral solutions to international conflicts.

 

Timeline

 

2010 February - Felipe Serrador, a major investment guru with connections to Brazil's oldest families is accused and later confesses to major securities fraud reducing confidence in Brazil's stock market. New laws are passed as a result but many pundits opine they are mostly token gestures as enforcement remains the main problem. Felipe Serrador flees the country while on bail and takes up residence in Venezuela. 

2010 - Former Vice President da Silva wins the Presidential Elections against several rivals including newcomer Jaoa Taveres, while Taveres is unable to win the presidency, his Moral Democrats are able to form a coalition government with the Worker's Party and the Brazilian Republican Party.

2010 October - Petrobras confirms the Jupiter off shore oil field at approximately 5 billion BOE confirming Brazil's reserves of oil the largest in South America. The government agrees to a partnership with private firms to exploit the new field.

2011 August  -  "The August Crisis". Three prominent American businessmen are kidnapped in Rio on August 8th the Amigos dos Amigos criminal group is implicated. On August 12th one of the prisoners is released when part of the requested ransom is paid. Federal Police unable to locate the remaining prisoners arrest the leader of the Amigos and put out the word he will be released if the prisoners are. August 13th the body of one of the businessmen is thrown into the street outside the Rocinha ghetto controlled by the gang. August 15th Rio's military police special police operations battalion storms the Rocinha ghetto and after an hour long gun battle rescue the final hostage. The leader of the Amigos is 'shot while trying to escape' the same day. August 17th-20th several members of both the Civil, State and Military police are shot dead in retaliatory attacks. At the request of the Mayor of Rio de Janeiro and the governor of Rio de Janeiro state President da Silva orders the army to intervene and oust the Amigos dos Amigos gangs from the Rocinha ghetto. August 26th, "Red Thursday" Brazilian troops enter the Rocinha ghetto and engage the Amigos dos Amigos gang in day long fighting intent on destroying the gang's major strongholds. The initial day of fighting costs the lives of 13 soldiers and 428 civilians and forces from the Brazilian army occupy the ghetto until September 3rd during which time five more soldiers are killed as are 38 civilians whom the government claims were gang members. The invasion of their territory and the loss of their leader ends the Amigos dos Amigos gang, and the operation is declared a victory by the da Silva government. Jaoa Taveres is quietly disciplined by his coalition for speaking in opposition of the operation declaring it 'a victory for no one but Satan'.

2012 - The 1350 MW Angra 3 nuclear reactor goes online in April, The San Antonio dam opens in June adding a further 3150 MWs to Brazil's struggling power grid. The first off-shore rig begins drilling the Jupiter field.

2012 May - State prosecutors in Bahia charge several members of the state government of embezzling funds that were meant for health and education projects. Protests follow in the poorest regions of the state and the accused are shot at on the way to the state court house causing the police to have to break up the protests with force.

2012 June - Documents discovered in the embezzlement case indicate that people higher up in the government knew about what was going on. 

2012 July - New charges are laid against staffers in the governor of Bahia's office who it appears knew about the embezzlement and were receiving kickbacks.  

2012 August - Brazilian news and documentary channel GNT airs a documentary on the August crisis that points out that while the Amigos dos Amigos gang was destroyed the struggle to fill the power vacuum actually increased the violence in the area and today a new gang simply occupies the old Amigos stronghold.

2012 August - Jaos Taveres openly supports the Bahia investigation which forces the President to do the same or appear to be supporting the embezzlers. Shortly afterwards the Governor of Bahia resigns for personal reasons and is later to on one's surprise implicated in the embezzlement scandal.  

2012 September - Amidst protests against government corruption, Brazil's Independence Day marks the official launch of its prototype nuclear powered attack sub. On the 10th suspicion falls on the office of the President in the Bahia scandal, investigators are uncertain how to proceed knowing that da Silva, a former defense minister, is popular with the army. Senator Taveres is approached and he brings the evidence to the President. September 20th Senator Taveres is accused of corruption and arrested by the Federal police. Protests erupt in the streets when word is released by Taveres' supporters that the President is implicated in the Bahia scandal. September 21st President da Silva shuts down the investigation into the corruption scandal through a Provisional Measure and protests intensify. September 25th Acting President of the Moral Democrats Jaime Taro Nacamura meets with representatives from the major political parties and presents the President with a petition calling for the reinstatement of the corruption investigation and release of Senator Taveres. September 27th after two nervous days of waiting, the President meets with the major political parties including a freed Jaoa Taveres.

2012 October - October 1st the President admits his guilt and the guilt of the Vice President and both officially resign from office. Under the constitution, the Speaker of the House of Deputies becomes acting President and an election is called for December 29th. 

2012 December - President Taveres is elected in the special election as President of Brazil and is required to serve until December 31st 2014. 
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