[War_ooc] France 2013

[Bryan Tribble]

Country: French Republic
Head of State: Adrien Durant, President of the Republic
Head of Government: Felix Desmarais, Prime Minister
Population: 65,476,127 (2013 est.)
GDP (PPP): $2.198 trillion (2012 est.)
GDP (PPP) per capita: $33,569
Unemployment: 9.2%
Economic Growth: 1.8% (2012 est.)

Political Landscape
Nicolas Sarkozy's inability to quickly overcome France's economic slump
during the global economic crisis paired with his increasingly inept efforts
at reviving the European Union and France's global relevance led to eventual
disgruntlement with his leadership even in his own party. Comments similar
to those during the 2005 Paris riots only served to prolong the 2011 race
riots and further damage the credibility of Sarkozy and the government.
Calls for his resignation became louder and unavoidable when he sided with
the President of the National Assembly, Bernard Accoyer, during a political
corruption scandal involving energy lobbyists that eventually led to
Accoyer's conviction and removal from the National Assembly.

Politicians within the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) began to regret
their 2007 decision to leave the presidency of the party empty by
proclaiming that "Nicolas Sarkozy remains, morally, President of the UMP."
Leadership positions within the party and the National Assembly were so
closely tied to Sarkozy that politicians began to look elsewhere within
their party for leadership.

Adrien Durant eventually emerged as the most likely and likable candidate.
His rise to power within the UMP was based primarily on his assumption of
leadership of the Democratic & Popular faction of the party, which contained
many members of his former political party, the Union for French Democracy.
He was simultaneously elected the new President of the Union for Popular
Movement (UMP) and the President of the National Assembly.

Durant immediately set about distancing the party from Sarkozy (who had
already been informed he would be declining his right to run for re-election
in 2012). His political savvy was attributed to rescuing the UMP during the
2010 regional elections, which had been predicted to go heavily in the
favour of the French Socialist Party. With the regional elections behind the
party, he began positioning for a prolonged fight with the Socialists during
the presidential elections of 2012. Although the executive retained
considerable power, Durant's use of the media and natural instinct for
political manoeuvring allowed the National Assembly (and the UMP) to take
credit for France's economic recovery.

Despite their success in steering the country out of the economic crisis and
onto the road to recovery, the UMP was still unable to make progressive
reforms on immigration, the European Union, social issues and foreign
relations. The French Socialist Party took full advantage of the UMP's
fumbling of social issues and thrived under the leadership of Ségolène
Royal. The National Front, relegated to obscurity after Sarkozy's election,
surged back on a wave of renewed nationalism fuelled by xenophobia over the
2005 and 2011 race riots.

Adrien Durant was put forth as the UMP's candidate in the 2012 presidential
election but failed to receive a majority in the initial election in April
thanks to the surprising performance of the Socialist and National Front
parties. Critics within the UMP blamed Durant's initial performance on his
unwillingness to "be political," that is to heavily utilize attack ads and
other mudslinging techniques, and his positive sometimes overly cosy
relationship with the immigrant community in France. In the runoff election
a month later, Durant won the necessary majority in a near repeat of
Sarkozy's performance in 2007.

Despite UMP efforts to hold off parliamentary elections, the Social and
National Front parties pushed for the elections to be held on schedule the
month following the presidential election. Determined to "form a government
representative for the entire Republic," Durant declined to appoint a Prime
Minister and form a government until after the parliamentary elections.

The parliamentary elections were hotly contested and saw the UMP lose seats
to parties in its own coalition, including the New Centre and Movement for
France, as well as to the "United Left" coalition. In the end, Durant's
coalition held 300 seats versus the left at 272, led by the Socialist
Party's 216 seats. After a week of haggling between party insiders on both
sides, Durant was forced by Ségolène Royal to accept Felix Desmarais, the
most liberal member of the UMP, as the Republic's Prime Minister.

Economics
The most necessary but politically unpopular measures for economic recovery
were taken by Sarkozy prior to his fall from grace. Privatisation of the
government's vast holdings in industries across the spectrum were halted
completely, and extraordinary amounts of capital were injected into
financial institutions, key industries and public spending programmes. While
this managed to halt a snowballing recession and for a time seemed to signal
that France would pull out of the recession ahead of other countries, the
stimulus eventually faltered and finally plateaued.

Led by Durant, the National Assembly began to slowly initiate programs to
restart privatisation in the hopes of making gains on economic growth. A
second, more targeted stimulus package was crafted and instituted by the
National Assembly and yielded an estimated growth rate of 1.8% for 2012
through heavy investment in infrastructure, defence and aerospace
industries; emphasizing exports to a recovering global economy; and
encouraging further economic integration with countries in western Europe.
Although still below the 2.1% prior to global economic crisis, it was hailed
as a triumph and led in no small part to Durant's increasing popularity.

However, the stimulus programs placed France significantly above the euro
zone's 3% of GDP debt cap. Additionally, unemployment rates remain a
problem, particularly in Paris and its suburbs, and it is clear that
France's economy continues to desperately need an entire overhaul to compete
in the global marketplace.

Social Issues
One of the most significant social issues facing the Republic is the ethnic
tension caused by immigration. Although the government upheld controls on
immigration, the number of immigrants seeking asylum increased during the
global economic crisis. The continuing mismanagement of France's ethnic
diversity, particularly in and around Paris, has led to a number of race
riots in Paris and other large cities.

Although it can be considered one of the best healthcare systems in the
world, France's health system is in need of reform as far as the State's
involvement is concerned. Mismanagement of the social security system (or
some might say the lack of management at all) has resulted in a higher GDP
cost for healthcare than is incurred by other countries with similar
systems.

Likewise, the burgeoning social security system has been a concern to some
economists. It was expanded by the National Assembly during the economic
downturn, adding to an already expanded system created by Sarkozy to address
social exclusion. As characterized by most of Sarkozy's administration, the
social welfare reforms made to address social exclusion were ultimately
unsuccessful and left the problem unresolved. Conservatives claimed they
were "wasteful" and even Socialists joined right-wingers in saying the
program was "ill-conceived and poorly implemented."

The most worrying social development for members of "the establishment" has
been the Pandora's box opened by Sarkozy's attempts at altering France's
laïcité, the policy which governs the strict, cultural separation of Church
and State. The policy formerly separated the two in the strictest sense,
leading to cultural taboos on making public remarks about religious views
and open hostility to mixing religion and politics in any way. Sarkozy
openly explored the possibility of bringing religion into the public eye
throughout his administration, greatly attributing to his declining
popularity.

However, the crack in the dam begun by the Sarkozy administration has
started to grow, although in a surprisingly different direction. A growing
number of detractors and supporters of Durant have suggested relaxing the
laïcité policy as a possible solution to tensions with the Muslim community,
which generally does not see or support a difference between Church and
State, especially following the December 2012 attacks. These groups have
pointed to the children of immigrants of the 1960's and 1970's who have
struggled to integrate themselves into French society and have turned in
increasing numbers to Islam as their identity.

Like most politicians of his generation, Durant has remained mum on the
subject of any changes of the laïcité but he has refused to reverse the
nominal changes made by Sarkozy, including government subsidies to religious
groups for purely secular activities. The new president's legislative record
suggests an embrace of conservative secularism as he voted in favour of the
2004 ban on headscarves and other religious symbols in the classroom and he
largely supported the recommendations of the earlier Stasi Commission;
however, Durant indicated early in his campaign that the Republic "should
stand ready at all times and under all conditions to demonstrate flexibility
within new global dynamics while striving to preserve our uniquely French
way of life."

Defence
As part of the two stimulus packages, military expenditures in France
increased from 2.6% to 3.0% of GDP from 2009 to 2012. The increase has
allowed the armed forces to reduce their debt, especially to small & medium
enterprises and contractors, and finance the renovation of military
facilities in metropolitan France, overseas territories and bases on foreign
soil. However, the majority of the increase has gone into accelerating
equipment procurement and research & development and increasing France's
military equipment exports.

Military reforms started under the Chirac and Sarkozy administrations were
allowed to carry on by the National Assembly, but President Durant has
indicated that they are currently subject to review. The reforms involve
transforming the French armed forces from a primary responsibility of
defending France's territorial integrity to becoming more fluid and
responsive to allow a quick response to terrorist and other destabilizing
threats. Durant has indicated that more emphasis will be placed on allowing
for rapid overseas deployment and further integration with European forces,
and he has also indicated that France will reconsider the "size and
structure" of its nuclear deterrent.

Foreign Relations
An internationalist by career and inclination, French foreign relations are
poised to gain from President Durant's administration. His extensive
experience in Francophone Africa may help relieve recent tension with North
African states over immigration issues and his European federalism
credentials should help revive French and European hopes in the future and
success of the European Union.

The new French administration has already openly questioned Sarkozy's
position on becoming a more active member of NATO; Durant favours
participation in European security structures over involvement with the
North Atlantic organisation. He has been careful to distance himself from
the cosy relationship between Sarkozy and the United States, although he
privately acknowledges the "unavoidable necessity" of a strong relationship
between Europe and the United States, particularly given China's increasing
global importance.

In Europe, France is poised to continue its policy of entente cordiale with
the United Kingdom and exploring further economic and military integration.
Sarkozy and Durant both recognized the importance of the "core" of Europe:
the Franco-German relationship. Fringe groups in the political establishment
continue to complain about the close relationship between the two countries,
and they have been joined by more legitimate voices of concern over
immigration policy and civil liberties in recent clashes between German
police and immigrants. The Durant administration has altogether ignored
these criticisms, and the new President followed in Sarkozy's footsteps by
visiting his German counterpart on the afternoon of his inauguration.
Franco-Ukrainian relations have also become increasingly warm as France
works to integrate Ukraine into NATO structures (to the extent that France
itself is involved in the structures); Durant has publicly criticized the
separatist movement in eastern Ukraine. Close relations are also maintained
with Hungary, Ireland, the Baltic States, Poland and Romania.

France's involvement in the Middle East has increased over the past few
years, thanks to Sarkozy's willingness to use foreign problems to shift
focus from his domestic performance. The Republic supported the Lebanese
Army in its attempts to disarm Hezbollah, and Durant has indicated that
France will "work endlessly" to insure that Lebanon is once again a model
beacon of stability and development in the Middle East. France heavily
protested the completion of the West Bank barrier, even going so far as to
withdraw its Ambassador from Israel for a few days. Durant has signalled his
hope for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, although
he seems reluctant to drag the Republic into the brawl. Relations with Iran
are likely to remain cool over nuclear weapons development. Any priority on
North Africa is expected to be placed on hold until domestic immigration
issues are addressed.

Durant has announced that he intends to make relations with sub-Saharan
Africa, particularly with Francophone countries, a hallmark of his
administration's foreign policy. Rumours have circulated that France's
activity in Africa will be designed largely as a Western bulwark against
increasing Chinese involvement and influence, a sort of Chinese Fashoda
syndrome. Work will focus on extensive aid programs designed for poverty
alleviation; political and other work aimed at shoring up the stability of
sub-Sahara African democracies; and cultural and education programs to
increase the presence and importance of French language and culture. Outside
traditional Francophone countries, relations with South Africa, Sudan,
Ethiopia, East Africa (including Tanzania, Kenya & Uganda) and Nigeria have
been specifically targeted for improvement.

In Asia, the Republic has expressed its desire for strengthened relations
with India but they will likely take a back seat to a focus on East Asia.
Economic ties with the People's Republic of China continue to accelerate at
a rapid pace, especially where aerospace and technology are concerned.
Durant has expressed a desire to strengthen cultural ties between the two
countries but privately there is a great deal of worry at the Élysée about
China's growing influence in Africa, particularly where Francophone
countries are concerned, and it's militarization. France is keen to
capitalize on the good relations established with Japan during the Chirac
years and with the Republic of Korea as a deterrent against North Korea
(and, possibly, China). More than a passing interest has been noted in
moving beyond the healthy diplomatic and cultural ties in order to
strengthening military cooperation with both countries. Elements within the
Foreign Ministry are pushing improved relations with Francophone countries
in Southeast Asia but their relative economic and political unimportance
seem to have placed them off the presidential radar.

Timeline
June 2010: Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) performs better than expected
in regional elections thanks to Durant's party leadership.
July 2011: Race riots erupt in Paris after French security forces arrested 4
Algerian men accused of plotting a terrorist action.  Tensions ignite and
the demonstrations by non-French people turn the suburbs of Paris and other
cities in France into a veritable warzone for a week.  Cars are burnt, small
bombs go off, buildings vandalized, and French bystanders attacked.
May 2012: Adrien Durant elected President of the French Republic.
June 2012: Union for a Popular Movement maintains a narrow majority in the
National Assembly and accepts a centre-left parliamentarian as Prime
Minister.
December 2012: Algerian immigrants attempt to attack the Cathedral of Notre
Dame in Paris with gunfire and grenades as the 1830 Mass celebrated by the
Archbishop lets out, killing 70 and wounding 45 children who had just made
their First Communion. The perpetrators manage to escape in the chaos.

Character Biography
Adrien Durant was born April 21, 1950 in the 16th arrondissement of Paris to
a wealthy family involved in the textile business. His early life was
characterised by frequent trips to Francophonie holdings with his father to
consolidate business agreements, which gave him a healthy interest in the
workings of the world. His parents set aside their own hopes for their
eldest son to inherit the business and fully supported his growing political
aspirations, securing him positions in the Lycée Louis-Le-Grand, Institut
d'Études Politiques de Paris and École Nationale d'Administration. His
education and the contacts made through his education essentially guaranteed
him a high position in government upon graduation.

In 1976, he was appointed the Deputy Director for Cultural and Artistic
Cooperation in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and spent the majority of his
time travelling to Francophone countries. After a brief stint as director of
that office, his contacts in West Africa earned his appointments as
Ambassador to Senegal, Chad, Tunisia and Mali. In the 1990's he served as
the Deputy Director for West Africa, the Africa and Indian Ocean Director
and Minister of State for Cooperation and the Francophonie early in the
Chirac administration.

His resignation was less in protest and more to satisfy his political
ambitions. Career diplomats were rarely Presidents or Prime Ministers, so he
made the move to the National Assembly in the hopes of boosting his
credentials. He followed a strictly centrist philosophy with populist
leanings and secured a number of re-elections from his Parisian
constituency. A member of Union for French Democracy (UDF) until its merger
with Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), like most UDF members Durant
strongly supported European federalism.

Divorced with two children in secondary school, Durant is generally the
embodiment of French charm (and arrogance). His internationalist tendencies
and experiences abroad have granted him some flexibility, but his time with
the Office of Cultural Cooperation and French Language Promotion has been
the hallmark of his career. He is extremely proud of his French heritage but
quietly insists, as a small but growing number of politicians do, that
France should exhibit some degree of flexibility in making concessions to
the diversity of people that live in the Republic. He is an extremely
principled man and prefers to leave yielding and negotiation to subordinates.
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