[War_ooc] Timeline stuff, Part III: Middle East and North Africa
John Penta
john.penta at gmail.com
Tue Jun 23 16:10:49 EDT 2009
Regional Themes:
1. Credo: If you're going to play the Mideast, you cannot avoid religion.
Fundamentalism will always maintain *an* appeal, but less so to the new
generation. They'll always be conservative, there'll never be gay rights
marches in Saudi, but it'll be less imposed, more societally-encouraged.
Similarly, Israeli society is likely to get rather more religious, but
finally shunning some of the more extreme elements...Though not without
bumps in the road for either.
2. Terror's revival: Namely, there's an uptick in terror from home-grown
groups throughout the Middle East, as economic frustrations and alienation
among the young express themselves through violence. In some cases, it gets
positively cannibalistic (figuratively speaking) as events near civil war.
3. Baksheesh: The term is Persian in origin, but the concept is fairly
universal. Graft, bribes, kickbacks, influence-peddling: Such is the
currency of the Middle East, with as much being determined by relationships
as by notional policy.
----
Events, written with help of Dylan:
October 2009: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas assassinated by Hamas
sniper team in Jericho. Palestinian society shortly descends into
tit-for-tat killings (large-scale violence remaining occasional) as both the
Hamas government in the Gaza Strip and the Fatah government in the West Bank
splinter into clan-based violence.
December 2009: Israel completes the West Bank barrier, to global
denunciation. Iraqi elections proceed smoothly.
January 2010: Lebanon nearly descends into civil war after the Lebanese Army
attempts to disarm Hezbollah. In the end, Hezbollah is reduced to the
possession of small arms only, with heavier armaments and fortifications
taken over by the Lebanese Army.
August 2010: Gulf oil production enters a temporary massive decline as two
refineries are bombed and shutdown for repairs; one in Qatar and one in
Kuwait. Industry analysts say oil production could remain low for up to two
years as the facilities are rebuilt. Oil prices spike in response and
financiers make millions investing in various exchanges. Meanwhile, public
anger and dissatisfaction continue to simmer in countries dependent on oil
imports as consumer prices rise rapidly.
January 2011: US forces exit Iraq, marking the official end of Operation
Iraqi Freedom.
September 2011: NATO combat troops exit Afghanistan as Taliban efforts are
focused on Pakistan, handing over control to a battle-hardened Afghan
National Army and Afghan National Police. Small numbers of trainers and
support troops remain to support ANA modernization.
February 2012: Israeli Ambassador to Cairo fatally shot by renegade Egyptian
police.
August 2012: Turkish military ordered to withdraw from Northern Cyprus by
AKP-led government; the island reunifies in October. A coup is feared,
amidst massive protests by secularist and nationalist elements, but does not
materialize.
October 2012: Several bombs rip through Riyadh in Saudi Arabia while no
less than 6 Princes of the Saudi royal family are murdered across the
country. Many cities shut down as the monarchy clamps down even further in
an attempt to maintain control of the country.
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